1. Introduction
1.1 Background
1. The emergence of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Kailahun district in May 2014 initially appeared to be an isolated event but has now spread to almost all districts with devastating socio-economic impact. The Ebola virus disease, which was first detected in February 2014 in Guinea, quickly spread to Sierra Leone with the first case being reported in 25 May 2014 and by October 17, 2014 the disease had spread to all districts, infecting a total 3,097 people, including at least 124 healthcare workers (HCW). Out of the confirmed cases, a total of 998 have died, with at least 97 HCW. The EVD crisis has had substantial economic and social impact including a major blow to the health sector.
Prior to the EVD shock, the economy of Sierra Leone had recovered and was on the trajectory to sustainable development. The country recorded double digit real GDP growth rates of 15.2 percent and 20.1 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively. This was largely driven by iron mining, agriculture, construction activities and an expanding services sector. The economy also enjoyed macroeconomic stability: single digit inflation rates, low interest rates, stable exchange rates and low risk of debt distress. Sierra Leone was not only doing well on the growth yard stick, but it was also making progress in poverty reduction and human development. The incidence of poverty fell from 66.4 percent in 2004 to 52.9 percent in 2011. Sierra Leone's Human Development Index (HDI) increased from 0.329 in 2005 to 0.374 in 2013 positioning the country at 183 out of 187. Sierra Leone had also made notable progress in consolidating peace and strengthening democratic governance institutions and build capacity to deliver effective and efficient public services in a transparent and accountable manner. The third post- conflict democratic elections in 2012 cemented the stability the country enjoyed since the end of the conflict in 2002. Sierra Leone has been one of the world's most successful cases of peace-building and post-conflict recovery efforts supported by the Peace Building Commission (PBC).
On 5 March 2014, the UN Integrated Peace-building Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL) formally closed and transferred its responsibility to the UN Country Team (UNCT), which consists of 19 agencies, funds and programmes, based on the UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2015-2018. The UNDAF and the Country Assistance Strategies of other development partners were aligned to the Sierra Leone's Agenda for Prosperity (2013-2018), whose implementation commenced in 2014.
However, the implementation of these country strategies has been temporarily suspended and resources diverted to support the emerging priorities. To support government's effort in combatting the EVD, the UNCT and other development partners would require factual information on the socio- economic impact of the EVD to support seamless interventions.
So far a number of institutions have done preliminary analyses of the economic and social impact of the EVD. These include, among others, MoFED (2014), BSL (2014), WB (2014), IMF (2014), International Growth Centre (2014a and 2014b), FAO (2014), UNDP (2014) and AfDB (2014). This report consolidates these analyses and provides a comprehensive preliminary assessment of the first round short-term socioeconomic impact of the EVD. The report was jointly prepared by country based economists from Government of Sierra Leone, UNDP, IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank during a retreat in Freetown from 15-18 September, 2014.